MLB Preview, part 2
All right, so team-by-team capsules clearly aren't my strength. Sorry about that. Though I stand by my insinuation that the AL is dumb.
Let's try something else. First of all, I'll admit that I'm not great at stats, predictions, and things of that ilk. The Diary has always been intended to be more from an Irrational Fan perspective, not a Baseball Expert perspective (though I could hold my own in many baseball discussions, I'd like to believe).
Having said that, I will just say I have no idea what to make of the NL West and Central. The West appears to be a collection of lame teams trying to out-mediocre each other. (San Diego in the playoffs last year instead of the Phils... what a freaking travesty. And I'm not biased.) The Central will probably be the same as always: St. Louis and Houston battling for the lead, with some random team lagging close behind for most of the season to make it interesting (the trendy pick this year is the Brew). Whatever. See, the problem, like I said, is that I'm not a Baseball Expert, not in the traditional (or useful) sense: I'm a Phillies fan first, a baseball fan second. (Though I do enjoy the playoffs and World Series, even when the Phils aren't in them. I just accept them for what they are: meaningless, non-Phillies exhibition games played for the amusement of people in New York and Boston.) The way I see it, the league is basically the Phillies and 29 obstacles. Either they get the hell out of our way, or they don't. Usually, they don't.
Which brings us to the only division that matters, the axis around which the sports world spins: the NL East, featuring the Phillies and the four most infuriating and evil obstacles. I shall rank them below, and please note that this season I will be using their new code names, which I have helpfully placed in parenthesis.
Marlins (Actually, I haven't come up with their code name yet; I'm thinking something like "Losers" or "Vegas Marlins" or "Firesale-Having Bunch of Cheap, Horrible-Fan-Having Teal-Wearing Bastards"): This is the one year where I think we can safely not worry about these guys. Their Spring Training camp must have been a ghost town: they have exactly two good players, Dontrelle and Cabrera, and they spent most of the month out at the WBC. They're like a AA team. I love it. (Knowing them, I predict they will win the World Series in 2009.)
Nationals (Expos In Disguise, or EIDs): The Soriano thing was probably overblown, but I have to admit it was fascinating - it raises all sorts of questions about the nature of player vs. team management (i.e., how much say does a player have in how or where he plays? Should he do what's good for the team no matter what, or try to protect and further his own career, even if it's bad for the team?) . Also, there's the promising sign that their front office is a bunch of idiots who make trades without doing adequate research (good for the Phillies to know for future reference, though to their credit, they did palm Endy Chavez off on us). Still, none of this is as interesting as watching this franchise morph gradually from "Lovable Canadian Team With Cool Logo That You Can't Bring Yourself To Dislike" to "Yet Another Faceless NL Team I Hate".
Braves (Pure Evil): What will Pure Evil pull out of its bag of demonic tricks this year? Maybe they'll field an entire squad of 16 year olds, and win 115 games. Maybe Bobby Cox will use his untouchable genius to cure all the world's diseases. Maybe Francouer goes down and gets replaced by another, better rookie out of literally nowhere. One thing's for sure: a Phillie will hit a home run off Smoltz, and he'll have a hissy fit like a little girl.
The pundits and experts seem frightened of the idea of picking against Pure Evil, they having won the last 55 straight division titles. And you know what, I'm scared of them too, knowing as I do that they're Pure Evil, and probably listening to everything I'm saying right now, and will arrange for a SEPTA bus to hit me tomorrow. So, I give up. Pure Evil will win the division, like they always do, and always will, for the rest of eternity. They will go 152-10, Chipper Jones will win the Triple Crown, Bobby Cox's ass will be red and raw from all the kissing, and they will find time to cause a rockslide in South America, killing thousands. After that, they will lose in the first round to St. Louis.
Mets (Scumbags): The more I think about the Scumbags, the less impressed I am. Their lineup is basically Delgado, Floyd, Beltran, that dude David Wright, and then a bunch of other dudes. That's it? That's what you're throwing at us? That's what has all the experts falling over themselves, awarding you 105 wins and your first title since you snorted your way to the last one? Oh, it's pretty good, I'll give you that, but is it better than Howard, Utley, Burrell, and Abreu? Guess what? It isn't. Or at any rate, let's call the lineups a push.
The Scumbags' rotation features Pedro and Glavine. They're like 80! And then what, Zambrano? Trachsel? Some kid with no major league experience? If this spring has taught me anything, it's that the Phils' rotation is going to be better than people think. Maybe even better than Pedro, Glavine, and a cast of thousands.
I think there's some psychological phenomenon at work here: basically, there's a perception that the Scumbags stole Wagner from the Phils, therefore the Scumbags are better. And yes, Wagner's an awesome pitcher, I will not claim otherwise. But seriously, are the Phils so horribly worse without him, as everyone seems to believe? The closer position is overrated. Wagner can talk about the Phils' apparent lack of a "commitment to winning" all he wants, but think about it: Ed Wade put together a team in front of Wagner that was good enough to get him nice save-worthy leads two or three times a week. Consequently, Wagner is now a millionaire. The Sox won the WS last year with some random kid closing. Granted, he threw 98 mph, but he wasn't some overhyped, overpaid closer that the Sox had to break the bank to get. The Phils were probably a little silly to turn around and overpay Tom Gordon in response, but as long as he's solid, he'll be fine. Remember, this team had Jose Mesa closing in 2003, and still won 86 games. That should really call into question everything we believe about the importance of closers, if not the very nature of reality and logic.
But there's one crucial reason not to hand the Scumbags the division title just yet:
They have Endy Chavez.
At the risk of absurd exaggeration, Endy Chavez is the worst baseball player who ever lived.
He'll rob the Scumbags of four or five wins, easy.
Okay. So that's the 29 obstacles covered. Tune into tomorrow, and we'll discuss the our Fightins. After that, it's time to play some freakin' ball, man.
